PFC
Probability Forecasting Consulting (PFC) provides techniques, software and analysis for probability forecasting. The methods are backed by international-quality research and utilised by central banks around the world. A stream of high-quality research over the last decade has positioned PFC at the frontier of macroeconomic forecasting.
Shaun Vahey
Shaun is Director of PFC and Professor at the University of Warwick. He previously taught at the University of Cambridge, the University of British Columbia, Claremont McKenna College, Melbourne Business School and the Australian National University. Shaun has delivered Executive-level education to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Norges Bank, Bank Negara Malaysia and the Australian Treasury. Shaun’s research has been published in academic journals including the American Economic Review, the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, the Journal of Applied Econometrics and the Economic Journal. He has previously served as a Bank Official at the Bank of England, a Senior Adviser at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and as a Special Adviser at Norges Bank. Formerly a visiting scholar at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank, Shaun's consultancy experience includes forecasting advice to Rio Tinto. He earned his PhD from the University of British Columbia in 1995.
Anthony Garratt
Anthony Garratt is Professor at the University of Warwick.Previously he was Professor in Economics at Birkbeck College, Univ. of London, Senior Lecturer, Dept. of Economics, Univ. of Leicester, a Senior Research Officer, Department of Applied Economics, Univ. of Cambridge and College Lecturer in Economics, Trinity College, Univ. of Cambridge. Before Cambridge he worked at the Bank of England as a Manager, in Monetary Analysis and prior to this was a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Forecasting, London Business School. His research interests lie in the broad areas of empirical macroeconomics and econometric modelling, with a focus on point and density forecasting, model uncertainty and combination, the use of real-time data, models and exchange rates. Much of this work is applied to monetary policy questions, has been funded by the ESRC and supported by the Bank of England and is published widely in leading academic journals such as the Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Economic Journal, Review of Economics and Statistics and the International Journal of Forecasting.
Craig Thamotheram
Craig completed his Phd in Economics at the University of Warwick in 2014 after completing his undergraduate training in Aeronautical Engineering at Imperial College. He is currently employed as a Research Associate at Warwick Business School. His research interests are primarily in quantitative macroeconomics, time-series econometrics and finance with a strong theme of Computational Economics and Bayesian Econometrics running throughout.
Leif Anders Thorsrud
Leif earned his PhD from the Norwegian Business School BI in August 2014 with the dissertation: “International business cycles and oil market dynamics”. Prior to undertaking his PhD, Leif worked four years for Norges Bank, and one year for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. As a central banker Leif contributed towards building automated forecasting systems. These systems are today used as an important input when conducting monetary policy at both institutions. For more info about Leif, visit his personal webpage: home.bi.no/a1010297
Liz Wakerly
Liz is Senior Teaching Fellow at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick. She has previously worked at National Economic Research Associates (NERA, London), the University of East Anglia, the University of Cambridge, Melbourne Business School, the Australian National University and the Australian Parliamentary Library. Her research and publications focus on forecasting in macroeconomics. She has taught macroeconomics and econometrics at undergraduate and postgraduate levels and, more recently, established and managed a Shadow Board of experts examining monetary policy in Australia.
